CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-03-02T18:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-03-02T18:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19327/-1
CME Note: The CME is associated with the M2.0 class from Active Region 12958 (N18E27) peaking at 2022-03-02T17:39Z and the eruption marked by an EUV wave and seen in EUVI A 195 and AIA 193 after 2022-03-02T17:45Z. UPDATE (2022-03-09T17:45Z): There is no conclusive arrival signature for this ICME. The L1 solar wind signature is dominated by the 2022-03-05 high speed stream.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-03-06T09:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:
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CME Event ID: A8105
CME Start Date/Time: 2022-03-02 23:32:00Z
CME input parameters:
Latitude: -3°
Longitude: -19°
Half Angle: 11°
Radial Velocity: 594 km/s
Notes from SWPC Forecast Discussions
Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2022 Mar 03 1230 UTC
...
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Regions 2954 (N18W65, Hsx/alpha)
and 2955 (N15W55, Hsx/alpha) were stable and quiet. Region 2956 (N25,
L=83) decayed to plage. Region 2757 (S15E17, Esi/beta-gamma) continued
to develop in it's leading and intermediate spots. Region 2958 (N16E17,
Bxo/beta) continued to decay and was responsible for an M2 flare at
2/1739 UTC. Newly numbered regions 2959 (S19E30, Bxo/beta) and 2960
(S21E74, Hax/alpha) were observed this period, but were otherwise
unremarkable.
The aforementioned M2 flare from 2958 was associated with a type II
radio sweep with an estimated velocity of 690 km/s. A subsequent CME was
observed in SOHO Lasco C2 imagery shortly after near 02/1812 UTC off the
western limb. Analysis and modeling of the event indicates a bulk of the
material is directed southeast of Earth, but there is uncertainty and a
weak glancing blow can not be ruled out for 6 Nov at this time.
Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2022 Mar 04 0030 UTC
...
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
...
Model output from the CME associated with the M2/1b flare at 02/1739 UTC
suggested a mostly eastward trajectory. There is a slight chance that
there may be some peripheral influence at Earth late on 06 Mat to early
on 07 Mar, although confidence is not high. No other CMEs were detected
during the period.
:Product: NOAA 3-day Geomagnetic Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 Mar 03 2200 UTC
...
NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
Active 20/40/40
Minor storm 05/15/15
Moderate storm 01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm 01/01/01
NOAA Kp index forecast 04 Mar - 06 Mar
Mar 04 Mar 05 Mar 06
00-03UT 1 3 3
03-06UT 1 4 4
06-09UT 2 3 3
09-12UT 2 2 3
12-15UT 2 2 2
15-18UT 2 2 2
18-21UT 3 2 2
21-00UT 3 4 2
Lead Time: 81.40 hour(s)Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2022-03-02T23:36Z
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